The Current Potash Story

Canada remains the US's number one supplier of potash, exporting 23 million tons annually. Despite ongoing tariff discussions, experts say potash prices could still see a correction. StoneX, Vice President of Fertilizer, Josh Linville,

“Russia's number two at 11.2 4 million. Belarus 5.2 million, the number three slide. So these numbers slide significantly once we move past Canada. And so they are our biggest supplier. Russia is number two. And this is something that a lot of the market has kind of missed with the whole tariff situation. They were not included on it, and it's because, well, the invasion of Ukraine has made it so where there's no trade because of sanctions, but fertilizers kind of slip through.”

As of now, there are no tariffs on Russian potash, but Linville says that could change at any time, and adds that any increase in Russian or Ukrainian potash exports may depend heavily on how the US Canada relationship unfolds.

“As of right now, we believe that potash is under the 0% tariff rate because it is considered a critical mineral, because it falls underneath our trade agreements for North America. If that's the case, there's no reason for our supply routes to change. Yes, Russia will remain number two, but it is a distant number two. Canada will continue to be the major player. Now, if tensions with Canada were to ramp up again and we start seeing more tariff rates on their potash, that is going to change things. We are going to see ourselves try to call more product from places like Russia.”

StoneX's, Josh Linville.