August Apple Estimates

From the Western Ag Network, I’m Bob Larson with today’s Fruit Grower Report. If you’ve been wondering why it’s August, harvest has started and you haven’t heard any kind of estimate or forecast for the 2026 Washington apple crop, that’s because, according to Michael Schadler, president of the Washington Apple Commission, the industry has decided to wait …

SCHADLER … “So, this year we’re flying blind a little bit, you know, when it comes to forecast, at least an official forecast for the crop. The Washington State Tree Fruit Association has traditionally come out in early August or mid-August maybe with an estimate of where they think the apple crop is going to end up.”

But coming out with early estimates, Schadler says isn’t always accurate and therefor not very useful …

SCHADLER … “There are times where if you come out with an estimate and it turns out to be, turns out to be much bigger than the reality, that can kind of hurt you as the industry or as the sales organizations are setting contracts with the buyers. It kind of gives the buyers leverage to drive down that price.”

In any given year, Schadler says estimates can be good, bad, or neutral in terms of being helpful for marketing the crop …

SCHADLER … “But, you know, the general consensus was it’s always hard to do a forecast in August anyway. There’s really no harm in kind of waiting and putting out an official number once you’ve really started getting all those bins, filling up the rooms and have a much better idea. So, the industry will not come out with an official forecast until early December.”

Again, that is Michael Schadler, president of the Washington Apple Commission.