Latest USDA Highs and Reports Surprise

USDA’s December hogs and pigs report put the December 1 inventory as 75.8 million head. That's down about a percentage point from last quarter, but up half a percent from last year. It was the size of the September through November pig crop. However, that really captured the trade's attention. According to University of Missouri Agricultural Economist Jason Franken,

“The main surprise is a record September to November pig crop up more than 2% from a year ago and just above the upper end of the range of pre-report expectations as a marginal cut in South Farrow was more than offset by 11.92 pigs per litter up more than 2% from last year's record for the period, continuing the upward trend in pigs per litter. While this level of productivity growth took the trade by surprise, in part because it's difficult to continually break records by large margins, further productivity growth is feasible, as Denmark is recently averaging around 15 pigs per litter.”

Franken adds that the greater than anticipated increases in inventories of lighter-weight hogs stems from the unanticipated record September to November, pig crop,

“Which also indicates bearishly higher slaughter levels for April through June, respective slaughter levels should be similar to last year for July through September, and higher for the remainder of 2025 given farrowing intentions for this winter, nearly identical to actual farrowings A year ago, and those for spring at about 1.4% higher and more than expected.”

These are numbers are based upon current trend