USDA forecasts smaller U.S. winter wheat crop but a lower price too

Farm and Ranch May 13, 2009 The USDA’s first production estimate of the 2009 U.S. winter wheat crop is 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008.

Glauber: “We knew it was going to be down just looking at the acreage numbers.”

That’s USDA chief economist Joe Glauber who says the decline is due to a number of factors.

Glauber: “The crop last year was so far behind schedule in many winter wheat areas so we didn‘t get as much planted as we might of otherwise. Also the fact of course that prices dropped last year and input prices were really high. Those all contributed to lower plantings.”

Then there is the drought in the Southern Plains which means less harvested acres in Texas and Oklahoma.

By wheat class USDA forecasts hard red winter production to be down 16 percent from a year ago, soft red winter down 31 percent and white wheat, most of which is soft white, down five percent from 2008.

In the Pacific Northwest Idaho’s winter wheat production is forecast to be down four percent from 2008 on average yields of 82 bushels an acre. Oregon’s crop is pegged to be 15 percent smaller on yields of 53 bushels an acre. Washington is forecast to have a six percent larger winter wheat crop than in 2008 on average yields of 60 bushels.

Despite the smaller winter wheat crop and what is expected to be less spring wheat production as well, USDA says large world wheat supplies will limit exports and its average price projection for new crop wheat is $5.20 a bushel, well below this marketing year’s expected record of $6.85.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.