Pork Inventories Rise as U.S. Exports Weaken

USDA's September Hogs and Pigs report puts the nation's hog inventory at 74.3 million head, up from the previous quarter. But the number of market hogs is down about one and a half percent from a year ago, including animals expected to reach the market through February. In the meantime, USDA's latest cold storage report shows pork inventories were 12% higher than a year ago as of August 31st. Beef stocks were also up 5% while poultry inventories were down 4% Those numbers provide another look at meat supplies heading into the fall and winter. University of Missouri ag economist Joe Franken weighs in on what the inventory picture means for consumer demand and the meat market.

“The USDA projects U.S. per capita pork consumption to be 49.4 pounds per person in 2026 and to rise to 49.9 pounds in 2027, notably below the peak exceeding 52 pounds in 2019.”

U.S. pork exports were down 5% in July from a year ago, with lower shipments to Mexico, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong increased exports to Japan and Canada were only partly offset by those declines.

“USDA is factoring the weaker export picture into the pork market. USDA projections for pork exports are lowered to 1.64 and 1.88 billion pounds for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.”

And while USDA drops the forecast for this year, it forecasts a rise for 2027 of 1%.