Robobank's Grain and Oilseed Projections

Rabobank recently published their 10-year outlook on the U.S. grains and oil seeds market highlighting trends and projections for the next decade. Andrik Payen, vice president of grain and oilseed analysis.

“The first takeaways, you know, US exports, we do see US exports growing over the next 10 years, but definitely we're seeing that grow at a moderate pace. Part of that been because, you know, we haven't seen much growth on wheat. And if you take in consideration the growth from the Black Sea region, Brazil and Argentina that continues to put more competition to U.S. prices are making U.S. less competitive.

Rabobank predicts increased corn exports, while soybean exports will decline due to rising domestic demand. Additionally, there will be more competition from the Black Sea region with the Ukraine using more oil seeds and increased wheat competition from Argentina.

“One of the things that really comes out from our analysis is that even though we're experiencing a downward trend in the next 10 years, or we're likely to experience that, given current conditions, we're still going to be or we're still going to have prices higher than pre-COVID levels. And this is partly because of inflationary pressure that we experienced over the last three years and input costs stay in a little bit higher than you know what we have previous to COVID.”

Robabank’s Andrik Payen.