Fewer Mexican Cattle, More Mexican Beef?
When fewer cattle come into the United States from Mexico, American cattle producers could see higher prices. But there's a catch.
New research from the University of Missouri, published by University of Illinois farmdoc daily, looks at what happens if restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports continue.
Those restrictions began in 2025 over concerns about New World screwworm. The border has since partially reopened.
Researchers modeled what would happen if imports stayed well below historical levels through 2031.
They found fewer imported cattle would mean higher U.S. cattle and beef prices than otherwise expected.
But here's where it gets interesting.
Cattle that aren't exported to the United States can instead be fed and processed in Mexico, potentially putting more Mexican beef into the marketplace.
So does that new competition wipe out the price benefit for American cattle producers?
According to the projections, no. U.S. cattle prices would still be higher than if imports returned to historical levels.
But there's a longer-term question about how much competition a growing Mexican beef industry could create for American producers.
And that's something researchers say remains uncertain.
For more on the research, visit https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/us-mexico-cattle-trade-and-beef-markets.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
