A Potentially Historic El Niño Takes Shape
California agriculture could be heading into a wetter winter, with a potentially historic El Niño continuing to strengthen in the Pacific.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean that typically occurs every two to seven years. As ocean temperatures warm well above normal, that warming can influence climate thousands of miles away, including large-scale precipitation patterns.
Now, I'm a far cry from a weather expert, so here's the research behind the reporting: UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain says there is now a greater than 90 percent chance this El Niño becomes very strong, and about a 70 percent chance it becomes the strongest on record since at least 1950.
For California, Swain says an El Niño of this strength tilts the odds toward a wetter-than-average winter, particularly across central and southern parts of the state. It also tilts the odds toward individual heavy precipitation events, which may increase the risk of inland flooding.
But even a very strong El Niño doesn't guarantee those outcomes.
Swain says peak impacts could arrive by November or December and possibly linger through March.
For more, visit https://ucanr.edu/blog/green-blog/article/elninofacts
