USMCA Renegotiation
From the Ag Information Network, I’m Bob Larson. USMCA renegotiation will likely take years and outlast the Trump Administration, according to one trade expert at a Brookings Institution event.
Visiting Fellow Christopher Sands said the required six-year review of the 2020 USMCA is about to turn into an annual review …
SANDS … “If we don’t renew, the agreement continues for ten years, and so, there is some stability that comes from that. However, what happens is that we begin negotiating to try to address U.S. concerns. So, essentially, it’s an ongoing negotiation where there isn’t really a timetable, just that July 1, 2027, we’ll have another ‘cards on the table moment.’”
Agriculture remains a staple of the USMCA, generating $149 billion in U.S. farm and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico, supporting nearly half a million jobs.
Farm exports to Canada have quadrupled, and increased five-fold to Mexico since NAFTA, yet Sands sees no resolution for possibly years …
SANDS … “This whole USMCA ‘kick the can down the road, continue the negotiations’ is going to mean, that we’re going to be in this pressure cooker with no easy exit ramp, all the way through the end of the Trump Administration. And the quicker that we can come to an arrangement where we can calm down a bit, the better.”
Sands says that U.S. Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer must let Congress know his plans soon.
Greer told the Council on Foreign Relations think tank that he’s already started bilateral talks with Mexico, while Canada is more problematic, given its Ag and security disagreements with the U.S.
