FAPRI Outlook Flags Tariff-Driven Uncertainty That Could Cut U.S. Biofuel Use in 2026

The Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute's newly released 2026 baseline outlook provides a 10 year projection for agricultural markets, trade and farm income. University of Missouri Agricultural Economist Ben Brown talks about what the report shows regarding renewable fuels

in the US.

“The headline numbers seem to be supportive, and the industry has kind of responded, but there's a lot of intricate details that actually could create a scenario where we consume less biofuels in 26 than we did in 25 and that's currently not the headline numbers, and that's not what the industry is talking about. But again, you know, when we think about the international feedstock imports that that kind of plagued us a few years ago, where we saw large cooking used cooking oil imports from from China. You know, those have been curtailed, largely because of tariffs. Well, you know, some of those tariffs are kind of ebbing and flowing now, and we might end up in a scenario where biofuel producers start re importing product, maybe not necessarily use cooking oil, but other product to meet some of these higher biofilm blending, rvos, renewable volume obligations, because some of the some of these provisions don't kick in until 2028 or even a year later too. And of course, we're going to have some more discussion

between now and then.”

Headline numbers may not end up being actual due to uncertainty in a changing trade and tariff climate.