Chinese Economy

Chinese Economy

David Sparks Ph.D.
David Sparks Ph.D.
Most forecasters expect a very strong rebound in the Chinese economy in 2021. The World Bank, the IMF, they're forecasting above eight percent growth. That's partly just a rebound from a very weak 20, 20. And so don't expect that to continue. But as that rebound fades away, it's likely China's going to continue to grow at about five percent per year, not as rapidly as in the past, but it's now a 15 trillion dollar economy. And if it grows at five percent, it will be the largest source of new demand in the world.

There are reasons U.S. ag producers can be optimistic about growing demand for ag products in China. In this environment of China, growing relatively well compared to much of the rest of the world, it's still true that China is a resource scarce country. David Dollar is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He spoke about China on a panel at USDA's Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. It has about seven percent of the world's arable land and 20 percent of the world's population. It's got serious water shortage in the whole northern half of the country. In other words, some 700 million people living in an area that's increasingly water scarce and subject to desertification. Meanwhile, rising income levels are another relevant factor. If you look at some of their explicit targets, the government would like to double the size of the middle class within 15 years.

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