Winter wheat production estimate up; wheat price forecast down

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We are checking back in with Palouse region wheat grower Kirk Moser, who says he has just given his spring wheat a second fungicide application to protect it from stripe rust.

Moser: “We have put on a second application of Quilt at this time just to try and cover the crop for the next 20-days or so. (Hoff) Otherwise how is the progress on both your winter wheat and spring wheat in development? (Moser) Surprisingly the spring wheat has really caught up with the winter wheat. Heading date at best probably only ten days apart from the winter wheat. So I think as harvest gets here we will be able go right through the winter wheat into the spring wheat and there won‘t be much waiting time there.”

Thanks Kirk.

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Farm and Ranch July 14, 2011 USDA’s July crop report issued this week increased the estimate for U.S. winter wheat production three percent from last month due to better yields. That included a two bushel an acre increase for yield estimates for Oregon and Washington. The Oregon crop is expected to yield 73 bushels an acre; winter wheat in Washington 69 bushels. Idaho yields were unchanged at 79 bushels. That would be a lower yield in Idaho than last year, higher in Oregon and the same in Washington.

The first field surveyed estimate for U.S. spring wheat production is 551 million bushels, down ten percent from last year. Brian Basting of Advanced Trading expects the production number to drop in future reports because of northern plains flooding.

Basting: “We have heard anything from upwards to a half-million or more acres lost. As high as a million acres lost between that area that has been h hit with the rain.”

The combined U.S. winter and spring wheat production estimates total 2.1 billion bushels, down from 2010’s two-point-two billion. Total wheat production in the PNW is forecast to be up four percent from last year.

All U.S. soft white wheat production is pegged at 268 million bushels, an increase of 16 million from last year with ending stocks forecast to grow to over 100-million bushels.

A lower outlook for corn prices prompted USDA to drop its average wheat price forecast 40 cents a bushel from June, to $7.30.
 

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.