USDA's outlook for wheat exports
Farm and Ranch May 19, 2011 A new marketing year begins for wheat June 1st and USDA Outlook Board Chairman Gerry Bange says the department is forecasting a considerable drop in prospects for U.S. wheat exports. Bange: “What we are seeing now is a very strong recovery in the Black Sea Region. We do expect the Russian Federation, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan to have much, much better production this year, at least based on current conditions, than happened to them last year.” When terrible drought decimated crops to the point that exports were banned. This year though the USDA says Ukraine output could top last year by 13 percent, Russian Federation almost 28 percent, Kazakhstan by almost 55 percent. Bange: “So we are going to see stronger competition out of that part of the world and probably going to end up with 2011-12 exports down about 17 or 18%.” That would put exports at about one billion bushels and although that is a decline the USDA expects U.S. farmers to have less wheat to export anyway because its forecast is for a wheat crop seven percent smaller than in 2010. And with about a 14 percent lower carry in of wheat supplies from the current marketing year Bange says the forecast is for a record all-wheat price this next year of $7.50 a bushel. Bange: “That is up sharply from $6.78 record that we recorded in 2008-09. So we are looking at a very strong price.” And wheat stocks are expected to fall another 16 percent over this next marketing year. I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.
