Whacky World of Idaho Wheat

 Listen to a few comments in recent media reports about wheat.

Mike Krueger of MK Commodities in Oregon says world carryover stocks of major grains are still relatively tight. Production problems could pop wheat prices higher. Iran has made another purchase of U.S. soft white wheat. A USA Today headline saying: “Global demand lifts grain prices, gobbles supplies” followed by a story saying that Pakistan is stockpiling wheat and using its military to guard flour mills, and North Dakota, the top U.S. wheat-producing state, may import from Canada due to tight supplies.

Then, of course, when you look at what’s going on Down Under, with top wheat producer Australia suffering from drought and massive wildfires, it may bring Idaho farmers to thinking: “I should plant lots of wheat…it’ll be worth a fortune.

Not so fast says commodity broker Bruce Davis, himself a wheat farmer.

 (Davis) “They don’t have that swing business where people were in there where people wanting to buy wheat because nobody else had any and it just fed on itself and ran that thing up to $13-$14/bushel and that’s not going to happen this year so speculating on some great big move, I wouldn’t know it. USDA came out with their S&D report that a little bit varies for wheat. They give these numbers out every quarter on corn, wheat beans,  what the carry out number is going to be and it was kind of neutral for wheat.”

 So far now, it’s probably not a great idea to bet the farm on wheat prices soaring.