10/04/07 Cattle cycle

Can failure be a good thing? I'm Jeff Keane; I'll be back in one minute to let you know. Failure is a word with a pretty negative connotation. It usually means your favorite team has lost a ball game, your vehicle won't start or run, or the field equipment- just fails. I was just reading an article in the Beef Today section of the Farm Journal magazine by Bob Price that made me think this one failure could be a positive. The event Mr. Price was writing about was the failure of the cattle cycle to follow a general time-tested scenario. The cattle cycle isn't a wheeled vehicle, although some cattle producers have taken some pretty wild "rides" by being caught on the wrong end of that market cycle. Usually when calf prices are higher the nation's cowherd will see a period of expansion until supply out paces demand causing producers to downsize the cowherd. Recent high calf prices haven't caused the expected increase in the cowherd. The main reason seems to be drought in many areas forcing cattlemen to decrease their herds instead of increasing them. Other factors include higher land prices that are detrimental to economics of producing calves, a younger generation that doesn't want to run cows, and operators that are expanding their farming acres and don't have time to manage a cowherd. The bottom line is if you have cows and the land to run them on the cattle cycle should be in your favor with good calf prices for a while longer. I'm Jeff Keane.