08/30/07 Bird Flu Threat

Bird Flu Threat. I'm Greg Martin with today's Line On Agriculture. It was bound to happen. The bird flu has finally mutated enough to now be transmitted from person to person. Dr Ira Longini, a biostatistician from University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research center in Seattle says the outbreak occurred last year in Indonesia. LONGINI: Through statistical analysis of the outbreak in northern Sumatra, we've been able to ascertain it was transmitted person to person at least statistically. We looked at a second one in Turkey and although we couldn't statistically prove there was spread, it could have been in that case as well. There simply wasn't enough statistical evidence to claim there was a spread but there certainly was in the Indonesian case. Avian Influenza or H5N1 is a particularly virulent strain of flu. Dr. Longini says there is a chance of pandemic outbreak. LONGINI: It's a big threat. You know pandemic flu happens about 3 times a century and will happen again. The difference of course is that we may be able to contain it at the source this time and prevent the next pandemic. But it's one of the big threats facing humanity. In order to contract the virus from birds you have to come in close contact with the foul but the virus is spread person to person just like any other cold or flu virus. LONGINI: In this country it would probably be exposure to workers but in most of the developing worlds there's chickens and other poultry  ducks everywhere. There's just a lot of human/poultry contact. There is a vaccine but according to Dr. Longini it is hard to come by and the virus is continuing to mutate. LONGINI: Once the virus begins transmitting person to person, each transmission can become more efficient. The primary weapon now against pandemic flu right would be antivirals'. But there is a vaccine that has been developed for H5N1. The problem is you know how immunogenic these vaccines are but we don't know how well they protect. With 2 doses people get a fairly strong immune response. Currently it's killing about 60% of infected people. Ordinary seasonal flu maybe one in 100-thousand die so it's many orders of magnitude more virulent. That's today's Line On Agriculture. I'm Greg Martin on the Northwest Ag Information Network.