11/21/06 Cattle-Fax analyst on 2007

American Rancher November 21, 2006 What potential marketing influencing factors should cattle producers keep an eye out for in the coming year? Cattle-Fax analyst Kevin Good answered that question during a recent visit to the Pacific Northwest. Good: "Well, as we look at it over the next 12 months the number one thing to look at especially if you are a cow-calf producer you are going to have to pay attention to what grain prices do. That is going to be the main driver probably the next two to three years. At some point we will find an equilibrium and we can factor that in but right now they have escalated. It is going to mean a softer market short term than we would have expected. So, grain prices number key. Drought conditions in some areas of the country that is a factor as far as looking at expansion and liquidation." Good says exports are important too. Good: "Extremely important that we regain our market share abroad because as we increase production at home we need the export market to offset the increased production levels because of where we are at in the cattle cycle." Good says the central and southern Plains drought this past year slowed the rate of beef herd expansion but he says it is still growing slowly. Given the high cost of feed he says if pasture and wheat grazing conditions are better we will warehouse a lot more cattle that way. I'm Bob Hoff.