Modeling the Size of the U.S. Cattle Herd

Well here we are mid-August and if you’re thinking to yourself, “geez, I normally see some cattle inventory numbers this time of year,” you’re not wrong. Historically, we’d have recently gotten an official number in this timeframe.

However, budget constraints have caused the United States Department of Agriculture to limit the number of reports it releases. One getting the axe here in 2024 was the July Cattle Inventory Report.

That said, there is enough historical context from which some conclusions may be drawn. Jason Franken from Western Illinois University has done the work in modeling these relationships…

“A model estimates the July 1 U.S. cattle inventory to be 94.2 million head or 1.2% lower than in July 2023. Hence, it appears the U.S. cattle industry overall remains in a contractionary phase, even if there may be regional pockets of expansion.”

Given the low inventory and cattle on feed numbers, Franken maintains that 2024 beef production will be 1.1 percent lower than last year and drop another 4.5 percent in 2025. Good news for folks in the selling livestock business, he predicts cattle prices are likely to remain above year-ago levels.