Potato Outlook for2023/24 Marketing Year

Competitive open markets and higher contract potato prices, an improved water outlook, and crop rotation pressures are expected to increase potato planted area by 2% year over year and lead to a 7% drop in price in 2023/24 marketing year. Rabobank Fresh Produce Senior Analyst Al Melhim authored the recently released Potato Outlook Report.

“The current marketing year, it has been very good in terms of prices for potato growers in general. More importantly for those who did not contract last year because the open market or fresh market prices were twice higher than the prices that were in the contract prices that were negotiated last year.”

He says processors will likely be willing to pay those higher contract prices.

“The fresh market prices are quite high and that signals to them that in order to incentivize growers to contract volume with them, they have to really at least be on par with the fresh market prices. As for fresh potatoes. We do expect that the prices to continue high despite possibly higher production year over year, just because there is still a strong demand from the food service that is actually spilling over on retail.”

Melhim points out the US potato industry has declined for the fourth consecutive year and will experience the smallest crop since 2010.