African Swine Fever in China

African Swine Fever has been making headlines recently as the number of cases reported in China has been on an upswing in recent months. It should be mentioned that ASF never left China, and the country has been battling the virus over the past several years, with new outbreaks reported throughout the past year. However, the situation seemed to be improving for the country’s swine population; the Ministry of Agriculture projected confidently in December that it largely had the virus under control and that its pig and sow herds would be fully recovered by the first half of 2021. The recent rise in reported cases of ASF in the country highlights already existing questions about this rosy picture, as well as the general uncertainty surrounding production in the country and its impacts on global flows of animal protein.

Increased ASF Outbreaks Raise Questions About Herd Recovery

Reported outbreaks of ASF in China have risen over the past several months, with new outbreaks reportedly occurring in at least five separate provinces, as shown in Figure 1. Note: This list of outbreaks may be incomplete as it is compiled from both official reports to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and various news reports. Contributing to the rise in outbreaks have been new mutant variants of the virus. Two specific strains that have recently been detected reportedly are less virulent than previous strains, which makes them more difficult to detect and thus easier to spread between pigs because the disease goes undetected, making it even harder to control ASF. This is particularly bad for piglets born with weakened immune systems. The source of these mutations is still in question, but several experts point to the use of unapproved and illegal vaccines in significant portions of the herd as a source.