A ten-year outlook from USDA

Farm and Ranch February 17, 2011 The USDA has issued a new ten-year outlook and it is pretty optimistic for U.S. agriculture through 2020.

Stallings: “We do see in general over the next ten years good prospects for farm income, for trade and for growth in the sector.”

Agriculture Department economist David Stallings who helped put together the new ten-year projections report. The report assumes laws and policies won’t change, which they probably will, and the weather is so -called normal, which it probably won’t be. But given that Stallings is predicting this year’s farm income will set a new record but there could be likely a little dip in commodity prices coming shortly. So;

Stallings: “We will see those incomes come off a little bit in 2012 because of moderating prices during that time period, and in 2013. And those will still be pretty high levels of income. Close to 90-billion dollars for both net cash income and 80-billion dollars for net farm income during those years.”

And after 2013?

Stallings: “We will see a steady increase over the course of the decade.”

With steady world economic growth causing rising demand for farm products.

Specifically for wheat USDA says strong prices and expected net returns boost wheat plantings this year but with relatively weak overall demand growth for wheat and continuing large stocks, producer returns fall in subsequent years leading to a decline in wheat plantings to about 51 million acres by 2020. The current estimate for wheat acreage this year is 57 million acres.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.