What to expect from Russia this year

Farm and Ranch February 8, 2011 The drought reduced wheat crop in Russia this past summer meant that nation’s wheat exports are expected to fall from over 18 million metric tons in the 2009-2010 marketing year to just four million metric tons in the current year. And of course there is currently a ban on wheat exports from Russia. So, what is likely to happen when Russia harvests its wheat crop this year? Mike Krueger of M-K Commodities in Oregon offers his take.

Krueger: “There is a very good chance they won‘t have much if anything to export next year. It would take some awfully favorable weather this spring and summer to have a large crop. Their acreage is down and poorly develop. That is a bad start. They will put some into spring wheat but the yields fall off pretty far. So, that is certainly one of the big questions in the year ahead. I‘d say most people question whether they, they may have some exportable supply but it is not going to be normal.”

Then there is China where the northern winter wheat belt has been dry and there may have been some winter kill. China has been importing a lot of U.S. soybeans. Krueger says they may need U.S. corn this coming year. And high domestic wheat prices has forced the government to release stocks to try and keep inflation down. He doesn’t see Chinese wheat stock numbers as reliable so who knows if they may need to import some wheat.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.