USDA raises white wheat export forecast but world wheat supplies go up

Farm and Ranch September 13, 2010 The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. wheat exports in Friday’s September supply and demand report by 50 million bushels with larger shipments expected for white wheat, hard red winter and hard red spring but not soft red winter. White wheat exports were increased by ten million bushels from last month’s forecast to 170 million. That puts projected white wheat ending stocks next May at 86 million bushels, which would mean a seven million bushel increase in white wheat carryout year-over-year.

The 50 million bushel increase in exports reduced the projected carryout for all U.S. wheat by a like amount to 902 million bushels but analyst Helen Pound of Penson GHCO says that’s a bigger number than expected.

Pound: “We really only lowered carryover to a carryover versus usage of 37%. It was forty percent last week. So, at 37 or 40% that is a huge amount of wheat in the U.S.”

Pound says the USDA did not reduce world wheat production as much as anticipated either and world wheat ending stocks were actually increased.

Pound: “Ending stocks went to 177 million tons from 174 last time and we have world carryover versus usage at 23%.”

So what about Russia? USDA did drop its production by 2.5 million metric tons to 42.5 million but actually increased Russian wheat exports a half million metric tons based on shipments made before the export ban. Kazakhstan also got a slight boost in exports. No changes for the Ukraine.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.

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