Higher U.S. but lower world wheat ending stocks

Farm and Ranch July 12, 2010 The USDA is forecasting U.S. wheat carryover at the end of the 2010-2011 marketing year to be at a 23-year high.

Glauber: “Almost 1.1 billion.”

That’s 1.1 billion bushels. But while U.S. ending stocks grow USDA chief economist Joe Glauber says world carryout is projected to drop nearly seven million metric tons due to reduced production.

Glauber: “In particular taking into account the wet weather we have seen in Canada. We have been adjusting their production numbers down. Also the hot, dry weather we have seen in Kazakhstan and some parts of Russia, Black Sea region where it has been very hot. Very dry.”

That’s led USDA to increase its forecast for U.S. wheat exports and to raise its national average wheat price projection to $4.60 a bushel, which would still be a drop from this past marketing year’s average of $4.87.

The USDA’s July crop production report pegged total U.S. wheat production this year at 2.2 billion bushels, about unchanged from last year. Compared to June the USDA increased hard red winter and white winter wheat estimates three percent and cut soft red winter six percent.

The U.S. spring wheat crop is forecast at 607 million bushels with hard red spring up three percent from 2009.

Winter wheat yields in the Pacific Northwest were raised from June and the region’s spring wheat yields are forecast above last year’s levels.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net.

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