Imports boost U.S. wheat ending stock forecast

Farm and Ranch February 10, 2010 The USDA supply and demand report Tuesday included a five million bushel increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks this marketing year compared to last month’s forecast. That would put carryout at the end of May at 981 million bushels. USDA said this reflects an increase in feed quality wheat imports from South America and Europe into the Southeastern U.S. Brian Rydlund with Country Hedging says that can have a psychological impact on traders.

Rydlund: “It does affect the psychology a little bit especially in wheat. We have been too high prices domestically in the wheat market and the U.S. has missed out week in and week out on a lot of export business because of high prices.”

Rydlund says that feed wheat will primarily impact soft red winter wheat prices either through lower futures or a widening basis.

Rydlund says that overall there weren’t any curve balls in the USDA report. He says world wheat stocks were up marginally.

Rydlund: “Now that continues the trend we have seen for a number of months but the trend seems to be slowing a little bit.”

While U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised white wheat carryout was dropped two million bushels to 40 million. This past year‘s white wheat ending stocks were 62 million bushels. Exports were raised for hard red winter but decreased for hard red spring wheat. Soft red winter and white wheat exports were unchanged.

U.S. barley exports and ending stocks were unchanged from last month.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.

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