Market advisor says $2 pop higher in wheat prices not impossible this spring

Farm and Ranch February 10, 2009 The world harvested a record wheat crop this past year which has increased carryout stocks. But Mike Krueger of MK Commodities of Wilsonville, Oregon says world stocks of wheat, coarse grains and rice are only back to minimally comfortable levels like those of 2004-2005. Krueger: “Consumption has grown enough, we have questions about it, but if it is in the same neighborhood as last year, and actually it has grown every year, then the world has to produce the second biggest crops, all three ways by a pretty large margin for us not to be tighter than 2007. Not much of the world is thinking about that today, we have lots of distractions, but that should come into mind as we progress into the spring and if there are weather problems such as a big potential in China right now, or our southern Plains or elsewhere, we may frighten the world as much or more than we did in 07, which would take the price up. Maybe not as wildly as two years ago but it could take it up quite a ways.� Krueger says he would allow for a two-dollar a bushel jump in wheat prices this spring, maybe around April, but it may not last long. Krueger: “You won’t know, is it good for another $2 or are we about to poop out and flop by the time we get to harvest. Well, there are things you can do about it if it gets high enough.� I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.