12/12/07 Ever tighter U.S. wheat stocks forecast

Farm and Ranch December 12, 2007 Estimates for U.S. wheat ending stocks for the current 2007-2008 marketing year continue to drop. USDA chief economist Keith Collins sums up the data on wheat from the department's December supply and demand report issued Tuesday. Collins: "We lowered our production forecasts for Canada, Argentina and the European Union. All major suppliers of wheat. We took our stock level expected for June 1st 2008 down to 280 million bushels. This past June it was 456 million bushels and we thought that was extraordinarily tight. So getting down to 280 million bushels would give us the lowest stocks level in 60 years." White wheat ending stocks are pegged at 26 million bushels down from 44 million this past year. That represents a stocks-to-use ratio of nine percent. USDA's national average wheat price is $6.20 to $6.60 a bushel which would obliterate the record from 1995/96 of $4.55 a bushel. USDA did make an upward adjustment in its world wheat ending stocks projection of less than a half million metric tons. For other grains, USDA raised corn exports by 100 million bushels from a month ago which also dropped ending stocks by an equal amount. Corn and barley are also forecast to have record season average prices. Corn is projected at between $3.35 to $3.95 a bushel with barley ranging from $3.70 to $4.30. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.