10/15/07 Forecast reduces world wheat ending stocks again

Farm and Ranch October 15, 2007 USDA's Supply and Demand report Friday forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2007/2008 at 307 million bushels. That's down 55 million from a month ago and would be the lowest ending stocks since 1948/49. White wheat carryout is forecast at 32 million bushels. That compares to this past year's ending stocks of 44 million. USDA also cut its world wheat ending stocks projection another 5.4 million metric tons to 107 million, the lowest since 1975/76. Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions in Yankton, South Dakota, says USDA finely made a big cut in its Australian crop estimate down to 13.5 million tons. Hoops: "And that is down from 21 from last month so a very aggressive cut from USDA. It is in line with expectations as low as 10 to the 15 million ton range. Their crop has just about reached the maturity stage and should be harvesting here very soon. At that point rain, or talk of rains, won't be able to help it." Hoops believes the Australian crop would have to get even worse before we'd see wheat futures take another run at the highs. USDA's new season average farm price for wheat is up to $6.10 a bushel, well above the $4.55 of 1995/96. USDA's corn production forecast is for a U.S. crop of 13.318 billion bushels, up slightly from last month. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.