10/02/07 Historically low wheat stocks

Farm and Ranch October 2, 2007 USDA reports on grain stocks and spring wheat production issued late last week were bullish for wheat prices. USDA chief economist Keith Collins says spring wheat production came in under trade expectations and September 1st wheat stocks were two percent below the last report and two percent below a year ago. Collins: "We have smaller supplies available to meet world demand in the 2007-2008 marketing year. Supplies were already extremely small and the market balance between supply and demand extraordinarily tight and this just adds to that market pressure." Analysts says the USDA numbers issued Friday could lead to the department lowering U.S. wheat ending stocks in its October report to just 246 million bushels. That would put the U.S. stocks/use ratio at just 10.7 percent as compared to 22.3 percent last year and compared to the previous record low of 15.8 percent in 1995/96. Of note in the Pacific Northwest, the Agricultural Statistics Service says wheat stocks in all positions in Washington state September 1st were the lowest since 1973. In Oregon on-farm wheat stocks on September 1st were the lowest in 50 years. Despite record high wheat prices and tight world wheat supplies USDA acting Secretary Chuck Connor says there will be no early out from the Conservation Reserve Program. I'm Bob Hoff and That's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.