09/20/07 What's next for wheat futures?

Wheat future prices have taken off, jumping nearly 50 percent in recent months to trade recently for more than nine dollars a bushel. University of Idaho ag economist Paul Patterson says the wheat prices reflect production problems in Australia, Canada and the European Union. PATTERSON "Stocks are going to be the lowest since 1977 but that doesn't really give you the full picture because since 1977 we've actually had a 55 percent increase in demand for wheat so a better way to look at that is the ratio of what's projected to be carried out and what the utilization is and at 18.2 percent on a world basis projected for this current crop that's the lowest on record going back to 1960 and that's as far back as the records for that data series go." The 2007 prices show only July ($6.42) and August ($7.05), when the price was three dollars above the 2006 levels and nearly double the 10-year average. PATTERSON "Its not going to turn around over night and so we're certainly going to see some prices well above the ten year averages for the next couple of years after the current year." More to the wheat price story and that's coming tomorrow. Voice of Idaho Agriculture Bill Scott