07/24/07 Cowherd size 2007

You know, it's kind of interesting to listen to or read what market analysts have to say. I'm Jeff Keane; I'll be back right after this with a little insight. In ranching and farming it's fun, frustrating and sometimes helpful to analyze what market analysts have to say. In our part of the northwest I'm always amused when the cherry trees or apple trees are blooming and the market predictors start telling anyone who will listen just what size crop might be harvested. Likewise, cattle market analysts scrutinize everything from weather at calving time, pasture conditions, feed supplies, how many flat tires cattle trucks have had and if there are enough good working cattle dogs to keep the herds under control. Right now, cattle market analysts are having some real fun trying to figure out if the nation's cowherd will expand or decrease. As far as the cattle herd cycle goes, the total U.S. herd should be expanding, but it isn't. Because of drought conditions herds in some parts of the country are decreasing. Other areas see herds expanding and decreasing. Now, if calf prices remain profitable and pasture conditions improve, the cattle herd will expand, but if corn prices stay at high levels, drought persists, and all other costs remain high the herd size will probably not show much changes. As far as predictions go, I always figured it's a long time from bloom to harvest or calving to selling and mother nature can play a lot of cute tricks that can be a heartbreaker or a money maker, but if there is an opportunity for a good contract  take it. I'm Jeff Keane.