02/13/07 Checking world wheat conditions

Farm and Ranch February 13, 2007 When he spoke at last week's Pacific Northwest Farm Forum in Spokane, Creighton University climatologist Art Douglas forecasted a good growing season for the Pacific Northwest. Wheat wise the one potential problem area he foresaw in the U.S. was the northern Plains hard red spring wheat area. And of course the potential for hot, dry conditions this summer in much of the corn belt. Elsewhere around the world, Douglas says with El Nino ending Australia should be coming out of its drought. Douglas: "As the El Nino dies the first chance for recuperation tends to be their winter. In other words as we start looking at July, August, September. I would expect then moisture to increase in Australia and that could be more favorable then for their wheat plantings as they go into the cool season down there." But Douglas notes that subsoil moisture is pretty depleted in Australia. Some crop observers have recently noted some dry conditions in India where not all wheat is irrigated. Douglas says that's an impact from El Nino too. Douglas: "With a quick ending El Nino on the other hand typically what will happen is you will have a good monsoon in the upcoming summer so that is what I would expect." Douglas says northern China has been rather dry. Douglas: "So I'll have to keep an out on that. Again, if El Nino ends in a hurry that favors more of a wet India and southern China and allows the possibility of dry conditions in northern China." As for Russia and the Black Sea wheat regions Douglas says they have had pretty good moisture and not much winterkill. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.