02/08/07 Crop impact of quick ending El Nino

Farm and Ranch February 8, 2007 A couple of U.S. cropping regions that could see weather problems this coming summer are parts of the northern Plains spring wheat belt and some of the cornbelt. That's what Doctor Art Douglas of Creighton University's Atmospheric Sciences Department told the Pacific Northwest Farm Forum in Spokane this week. The reason; what appears to be a coming quick end to El Nino. Douglas: "Quick ending El Ninos tend to be warm and dry throughout the cornbelt. And there are a lot of other indicators to suggest that this may be the pattern we have in the upcoming summer. So it could be a little dicey. On the other hand, if we look at subsoil moisture conditions, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, even parts of Iowa, they have had relatively good rains this winter which is quite unusual for this region and therefore they are going in okay with good subsoil moisture. On the other hand, if we look at the Dakotas, portions of Nebraska, Minnesota, northern Iowa, it has been quite dry. So if there are going to be problems that's likely the area we are going to see problems." If the Dakotas may have problems, what about the Canadian Prairie, another hard red spring wheat producing region? Douglas: "They are going to have kind of a cold spring. Northwest airflow is not particularly wet. So they are going to keep snow, have late planting, colder than normal temperatures. It is not a real positive situation for south central Canada." For the Pacific Northwest Douglas forecast a cool spring with precipitation at 80-90 percent of normal for Washington and Oregon and normal to above in Idaho. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.