02/05/07 Beef herd expansion stalling

American Rancher February 5, 2007 USDA's Cattle Inventory report Friday put the U.S. cattle heard at 97 million head. That's only a 3/10ths of one percent increase over 2006. USDA analyst Shayle Shagum says the uncertainty over forage and uncertainty over potential feed costs is slowing growth of the U.S. cattle herd. Although dairy cow numbers are up one percent, Shagum says it is a different story for beef. Shagum: "What you are also seeing though is a fractional decline in the number of beef cows and a small decline in the number of heifers which are likely to be retained for beef cow replacement." So what happens from here will depend in part on the outlook for forage. Shagum: "If forage remains hard to come by and prices of supplemental hay increase producers may have to rethink some of their plans." Some of the Pacific Northwest states did see larger increases in their cattle numbers. Idaho's total cattle herd at nearly 2.2 million head was up three percent. Washington's cattle numbers were up four percent at 1.14 million head. Oregon's cattle herd dropped six percent to 1.34 million head. Idaho's beef cow numbers were the same as last year but heifer replacements are up five percent. Washington's beef cow numbers are down six percent and heifer replacements off 47 percent. Oregon's beef cow numbers are down four percent with replacement heifer numbers up 10 percent. I'm Bob Hoff.