12/12/06 USDA trims wheat export forecast

Farm and Ranch December 12, 2006 The slow pace of U.S. wheat shipments and sales along with increased competition from more world production and supplies prompted the USDA to trim its forecast for U.S. wheat exports in its December supply and demand report Monday. A 25 million bushel drop in exports was partially offset by a five million bushel increase in domestic use. That resulted in a 20 million bushel increase in projected 2006-2007 wheat ending stocks which are now pegged at 438 million bushels, still down from the previous marketing year. Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions in Yankton, South Dakota, says USDA may have to reduce export prospects further in future reports. Hoops; "Right now we are on pace to export about 825 million bushels as the marketing year would end on July 1 of 2007 *so the USDA still may be 75 million bushels too high on their export forecast. Unless we can see a big change in demand in the last half of the marketing year we are likely to see USDA continue to lower that demand trend." And Hoops says it's pretty rare to see an increase in the export pace in the second half of the marketing year. The decrease in the export forecast was all for hard red winter and hard red spring wheat. The forecast for U.S. white wheat was actually increased 10 million bushels from the November report. USDA raised world wheat ending stocks two million tons but they are still significantly lower than the last marketing year. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network. * (The new marketing year for wheat actually begins June 1st, not July 1st)