Volatile Fertilizer Markets Challenge 2026 Farm Budgets

According to a Market Intel report from the American Farm Bureau, fertilizer costs are once again weighing heavily on farm budgets. The story isn’t new — back in 2022, fertilizer prices skyrocketed on the back of energy shocks, supply chain problems, and trade disruptions. Things cooled some in 2023 and 2024, but here in late 2025, costs are rising again and are expected to stay high into 2026.

That’s happening at the same time crop receipts are slipping, especially in row crops, leaving producers with tighter, sometimes negative, margins. And the outlook isn’t steady. Seasonal swings in natural gas markets this winter, plus changes in China’s export policies, are expected to drive even more price volatility in the months ahead.

The USDA projects production costs climbing in 2025, with fertilizer and lime alone accounting for about 7%. Phosphates are leading the latest price surge, nitrogen markets are jumping around month to month, and potash faces trade-related pressures.

The bottom line: unpredictable fertilizer markets remain one of the toughest challenges farmers face in planning for 2026.

For the full report, visit: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/fertilizer-outlook-global-risks-higher-costs-tighter-margins