Canada's Economy Improved
From the Ag Information Network, I’m Bob Larson. Several recent economic reports say that, in the first six months of this year, Canada’s economy did better than expected, posting around 2% growth.
According to Toronto-based trade lawyer, Mark Warner, this positive news flies in the face of widespread fears of recession over Donald Trump’s tariff wars …
WARNER … “We’re not in bad shape. And the reason we’re not in bad shape is that in March, President Trump created an exemption for some of these tariffs for Canada and Mexico, to the extent that the goods passing the border were compliant with the USMCA terms. There’s a lot of debate about what that percentage is, but it’s over a majority, and that’s important. But Canada looks in pretty good shape. We benefit from that NAFTA exclusion.”
Scotia Bank economist, Jean-Francois Perrault, believes if talks go well at next year’s USMCA, Canada and Mexico might still be in the most competitive situation, relative to other trading partners …
PERRAULT … “What’s occurred on the tariff side hasn’t been nearly as aggressive as we feared it would be. Tariffs are no good, period. But, at the end of the day, if we come out of this with 4 or 5 percent tariffs, and the Europeans have got 15, the Brits have got 10, every other country has got more than that, we remain in a deeply competitive position.”
A review of the 2020 USMCA trade pact is officially scheduled to begin mid-to-next year, but some believe formal discussions will begin this fall.
