Can Almond Acreage Rebound?

This is Tim Hammerich of the Ag Information Network with your Farm of the Future Report.

In recent years almond growers have faced some tough economic realities with rising costs and historically low prices. Although prices have rebounded in recent months, almond grower and former farm advisor David Doll says the overall production of California almonds may have already peaked.

Doll… “ What we've been seeing in 23 and 24 is declining yields per acre, increasing economics, increasing costs, and that has led to a retraction of the footprint. $2 almonds still require about 2200, 2300 pounds per acre to break even. And when you're looking at a $1.60 and a $1.50 or less in 2022, for the past two years, there was significant losses experienced on these farms. So we've essentially saw 160 to 180,000 acres of almonds being removed. And when we fast forward to the 2024-2025 year, you know, we're, we're seeing that carryover come down, and then you tack that on, that we're seeing this impact of supply from two years in a row of low production and sales still hanging in there around 2.75, 2.8, 2.85 billion pounds. And that number seems to continually grow at around 2.5% per year. And that suggests that within the next three years, we should be around 3 billion pounds. And I, I'm just struggling to figure out how California is gonna hit another 3 billion pound crop."

Doll said these compressed margins elevates the importance of effective farm management.