When Will the Cattle Industry Rebuild?

When Will the Cattle Industry Rebuild?

Haylie Shipp
Haylie Shipp
The cattle industry is continuing its contraction. That’s the quick and dirty summary of the USDA January Cattle Inventory report. But, the question is, when will rebuilding start?

In summarizing the report, that very question is something Bernt Nelson, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation speculated and, as we can say with a lot anymore, there are no clear answers.

Nelson says this is not a typical cattle cycle where high prices lead to growth in the cattle herd.

Rather, high cattle prices combined with the unpredictability of future prices and profitability could compel farmers to continue marketing a higher percentage of females for beef rather than breeding. If this happens, contraction in the cattle industry will continue along with the current cattle cycle.

He also notes that calf prices are also strong, which presents an opportunity for cow-calf producers. If these calves are retained or sold for breeding, it will remove more cattle from the beef market and tighten supplies further before possible expansion with the 2026 generation of calves.

For more of his assessment, visit: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/cattle-inventory-continues-contraction

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