The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released today by USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, increased corn supply for the start of the new marketing year, largely driven by the 600,000 additional acres farmers planted. USDA dropped the soybean supply due to a 400,000-acre decrease in soybeans planted but bumped up the cotton supply despite a 530,000-acre decrease. Yield expectations for corn and soybeans were increased by 1%, while cotton yield expectations increased by 12% compared to last month’s report. Wheat yields remain unchanged compared to last month.
For the close of the 2020/21 corn marketing year, a decrease of 40 million bushels in ethanol use and a decrease of 30 million bushels in corn exports pushed USDA’s ending stocks to estimate 6% higher to 1.18 billion bushels from the August estimate of 1.11 billion bushels. USDA estimates the 2020/21 marketing year price to be $4.45 per bushel, up 5 cents compared to August and up 25% compared to 2019. The stocks-to-use ratio of 7.9% is cut nearly half from where it was in 2019 and is the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 2012.