Crop Report

Most grain traders and analysts did think that USDA would, in the new crop forecast, reduce estimates of corn and soybean yields and production by a little bit. “But it did catch a number of folks in the industry by surprise.” USDA deputy chief economist Cindy Nickerson. The USDA estimates of corn and soybean yields and production turned out to be lower than even the lowest trade projections. For corn, Nickerson says USDA statisticians… “dropped the yield one point five percent relative to the previous estimate in October. And with no change in harvested acreage, that drove down their estimate of production by one point five percent as well.” Down to 14 and a half billion bushels. Still a big crop, but smaller than expected, sending December corn futures up 16 cents. USDA soybean production estimate is also lower than expected at four point one seven billion bushels. Market reaction January soybeans jumping 36 cents, prices going up to around 1146 a bushel. Production for major spring crops per the Agriculture Department's November reports looked like this corn production down one percent from last month, with the forecast coming in at 14 and a half billion bushels. Soybean production forecasts were lower two percent from October, but still up 17 percent year over year, with the forecast calling for four point one seven billion bushels. Cotton crop production forecasts were up less than a percent from the previous report, and yields were up two pounds from October. The latest production reports combining surveys with actual field sample collection and counting should be close to actual final numbers. As for adjustments, month over month for the season ending average price of major spring crops, corn being added, cotton prices saw increases of 40, 60 and three cents per their respective measurements, respectively.