Quarterly Wheat Market Snapshot
Stolp: "Wheat producers entered 2016 celebrating the weather but lamenting the markets with prices below most producers breakeven prices. Late fall and early winter predication exceed the previous year's levels, setting the stage for spring. However, record global production and ending stocks leave usable world wheat stocks at 32 percent — their highest since 2001-2002. With a world flush in wheat,
Near-term market upswings are likely short-lived, pressured by surging global supplies. Alternative crops are increasingly being explored to diversify producers' income streams.
The snapshot continues with higher total domestic use, up 2 percent from the prior year, does not offset rising wheat supplies and lower exports. At 775 million bushels, U.S. all-wheat exports are their lowest since 1971-72, when the U.S. exported 599 million bushels. Lower U.S. exports are attributed to ample global wheat supplies and stiff foreign competition, exacerbated by a strong U.S. dollar.
Forecast at 966 million bushels in 2015-16, U.S. ending stocks are their highest since 2009-10.