Try & Try Again

Do it over and over again until you get the result you want. That approach seems to work for gubernatorial elections and now it seems that it will be the approach taken by the Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack over the results of the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model.  To put it in short form the model was developed to simulate the allocation of land over time to competing activities in the ag and forest industries that revolves around the effects of greenhouse gas emissions policy. Contrary to what Vilsack and others were hoping for the results suggest that an ever increasing amount of farm and pasture land will be converted to forest property as green house gas emission standards become stricter and carbon credits more valuable.  That changes the playing field for agriculture substantially. Farmers who now lease land for crops will find that their landlords have opted out for planting trees instead, finding it easier to sell carbon credits than to collect rent. Less land for farming equals fewer farmers, which equals less food produced in the U.S. and high food prices for American consumers due to importing. Not a pretty scenario. No wonder Vilsack is seeking a second and possibly third rosier analysis.