12/05/08 Ag export forecast

More economic concerns ahead. We are now being told that a previously rosy agricultural export forecast is being revised downward. BANGE "A very, very sharp decline in our export forecast." Three months ago USDA World Outlook Board Chairman Gerald Bange was making a fiscal year export forecast of a whopping 113 billion. That was then. This is now a 98.5 billion dollar export forecast for fiscal 2009 and it could be the first decline in US ag exports in a decade. BANGE "First off prospects for a continued global economic downturn which I now think we can safely call a recession at this point, clearly this is not only affecting the US but its affecting economies globally. On the basis of that we've got weaker falling demand and we've had a precipitous decline in prices and then on top of all of that we've got a stronger dollar." Bange says wheat and coarse grain shipments out of the country are down about 20 percent. BANGE "So in the case of wheat and coarse grains we're seeing both a decline in the volume of shipments and were also seeing a decline in prices. Our feed grains, coarse grain exports have strong competition from elsewhere in the world." Put it all together says Bange and you have the formula for a big decline in American ag sales to other countries. Today's Idaho Ag News Bill Scott