11/11/08 White wheat export forecast cut

Farm and Ranch November 11, 2008 In its November supply and demand report Monday the USDA left its projection for total U.S. wheat exports this marketing year unchanged but did make adjustments among wheat classes. And that included reducing the forecast for white wheat exports by ten million bushels to 120 million. That's fifty million bushels less than this past year and puts projected white wheat carryout next May at 74 million bushels, compared to just 37 million in 2007/2008. Total U.S. wheat ending stocks were increased two million bushels from last month to 603 million and world ending stocks were raised just under one million metric tons. As to the market outlook for wheat, Joe Victor of Allendale Incorporated says right now wheat is a follower of corn, which follows crude oil, which has been falling. Otherwise he doesn't think wheat fundamentals are all that bad. Victor: "Higher domestic stocks. We have higher world stocks and that is being a heavy weight. This mentality on the trade floor is that it is world record production. Well sure it is. But it is also world record consumption." Victor says once the U.S. corn harvest is complete we should see a bottom in the corn market, which will help wheat, which he says usually puts in a bottom about this time of year. USDA's new projection for the national average price for wheat for the marketing year is $6.88 a bushel, down from last month's $7. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.