05/12/08 Record world wheat crop forecast but still high prices

Farm and Ranch May 12, 2008 The USDA is forecasting a U.S. winter wheat crop this year of 1.8 billion bushels, up 17 percent from 2007 on increased acres and yields. Winter wheat production in the Pacific Northwest is pegged at 214.4 million bushels, up seven percent from last year. While PNW winter wheat acres increased from 2007, USDA sees a mixed bag for yields compared to last year. Oregon yields are forecast at 60 bushels an acre, up five bushels over 2007, but Idaho would see slight drop to 72 bushels as would Washington with 63 bushels an acre. Those are all based on conditions as of May 1st. By class soft red winter wheat shows the biggest production increase, up 54 percent from last year. Hard red winter is forecast to increase five percent with white winter wheat up 10 percent, most of which is soft white. USDA chief economist Joe Glauber says they are also forecasting a larger world wheat crop. Glauber: "World wheat production right now to increase for 2008-9 to increase by 50 million tons." Totaling a record 656 million tons, an eight percent increase over 2007. USDA is forecasting the 2008-2009 national average price for wheat at between $6.60 to $8.10 a bushel. The current year's average is a record $6.55. The Agriculture Department says the only significant weather problems for winter wheat are in the drought-stricken Middle East and North Africa. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.