08/24/07 Beef herd expansion stalls

Washington Ag August 22, 2007 Just last year livestock analysts were saying the cattle cycle was in an expansion mode, but not anymore. Shagum: "Growth in the inventory has at least stalled. Time will tell whether we are going to be contracting again." That's USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagum who says it looks like a contraction in some regards. For example USDA expects the calf crop to be smaller. Last week's Cattle on Feed report also showed feedlot inventories down five percent below August a year ago and placements into feedlots down 17 percent. Shagum: "At this point it definitely looks like any expansionary movement has been limited. Some of that by dry weather in the southeast. Cow calf operators are being forced to liquidate some of their cows in the southeast. As a result we are basically seeing a stalling in the growth of the cattle inventory." Range and pasture conditions aren't great in the Pacific Northwest either. In Idaho fires continue to burn range land, reducing grazing resources. In Washington, while conditions on the west side were excellent and rotations were lasting much longer than expected, on the east side conditions are difficult as pasture growth shutdown weeks ago. Now when it comes to prices, Shagum says fed steers should average 90 dollars a hundredweight for the rest of the year. I'm Bob Hoff.