U.S. Cow Herd Hits Smallest Since 1951; Recovery Possible by 2027–28

USDA reports released confirmed that the US cow herd is now in its seventh consecutive year of liquidation. R-CALF United Stock Growers of America, CEO Bill Bullard, shares his perspective on what this continued decline means for the cattle industry.

“The end of January, we learned that we have now have been in the seventh year of consecutive year of liquidating the US cow herd. So 2025 had an inventory less than 2024

and that means we continue to liquidate based on trends.”

Bullard is hopeful that the herd inventory will start to increase.

“We are seeing that more heifers have been retained and held back and bred. So perhaps next year we will see a slight increase in the size of the US cow herd. But because of the long biological cycle of cattle, the decisions made last year will reflect perhaps a slight increase in 2026, but it's going to be 2027 28 before we see any measurable increase.”

Once again, Bill Bullard with R-CALF USA, according to USDA as of January 1, the US cattle herd is reported at 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86 and a half million head as of January 1, 2025. This figure marks the smallest US herd since 1951.