U.S. Herd Numbers “Historical Lows”

The U.S. cattle herd numbers are still at record-lows. Kevin Good, vice president of industry relations for CattleFax, says the U.S. herd is still at levels not seen for decades. As far as feeder cattle and calves go, America is down a million head, and that’s not including the reduction in cows.

“I think you start with the total herd, which is historically low, but you think about the inventory report from January one, which is the lowest that we've had since back in the 50s, so you've got to herd that's historically low in total. But you continue, as a long-term trend, to continue to lock up more of them on-feed or a higher percentage. I think there's a message there about the available supplies. More of them are on-feed. The February 1 on feed number was even with a year ago and only down one percent compared to the five-year average, which means the available supplies outside of feed yards, as far as feeder cattle and calves, are down a million head, and that's not counting the reduction in cows and all that.”

“I think there is a message there that more of them are locked up. But as a trend, there's less of them, and we tend to feed cattle longer. So, even if you've got an on-feed number that's, let's say, even year-over-year, you're still going to market a couple percent less just because we have a tendency, long-term trend, to feed cattle longer and to heavier weights.”