Drought Forecast Expected to Drag into 2024

The whiplash western producers experienced between drought and floods this year was significant. Drew Lerner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist with World Weather Inc., says the 2023 story began three years ago.

“I think the routes in 2023 go back to 2020. We entered this particular solar cycle in 2020. It happens to be a very unique solar cycle. It’s a 22-year pattern. Once we got into the year 2020, we immediately went into La Niña, right? And the 22-year solar cycle and La Niña don't get along well. We end up with a lot of dryness, and in 2020, we developed this North American drought that extended from Mexico clear up into Canada, and we've been dealing with it ever since.”

“That means we're gonna go through a big part of the winter without much relief in these drier-biased areas. And when we get into the spring, we're still going to be dealing with the same kind of flow pattern for a while longer, and so we'll end up still fighting moisture deficits in the spring. I think we'll have a few-week period in the spring where we can get some better precipitation to occur before we go into the summer pattern. From what I've looked at so far, we're going to see some more ridges in the middle of the country, a drier bias, warmer than normal temperatures, and all that.”